I’m swamped with homework this week, but after my post about vanity sizing a few weeks ago, I thought this picture might amuse a few people: 
The white-ish sparkly dress on the top is one my grandmother gave me when I was a little kid to play “princess dress up” in (it was a floor length gown when I was 5!). Someone set it aside for me after she died, and I found it this week while sorting through some boxes. I checked the tag out, and it’s marked as a size 14. The dress below it is a bridesmaids dress I wore about 6 years ago at my brothers wedding….also marked a size 14. I don’t know how long my grandmother had the top dress when she gave it to me in the 80s, but my guess is it’s from the late 70s. That’s 4 decades of size inflation right there folks.
If it followed this chart at all, the top dress would be a size 4 by today’s standards. The bottom dress would have been a size 20 in the late 70s.
My own vanity now compels me to mention that I don’t actually fit in the 2010 size 14 any more, I’m a 1987 size 14 thank-you-very-much.
graph paper diaries 
I only wish to note that your size-14-by-1958-standards dress is a pretty close match to contemporary size 14 in the children’s range.
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Interesting point and really good eye!
I was curious what kids sizes looked like in the late 70s (when I think this dress was from), and according to websites like this:
https://vintagestitching.com/collections/1970s-childrens-vintage-patterns/products/mccalls-2482-girls-dress-top-pants-vintage-1970s-sewing-pattern
A size 14 in girls clothes used to be essentially the same waist size as women’s, but different bust and hip:
https://vintagestitching.com/collections/1970s-childrens-vintage-patterns/products/mccalls-2482-girls-dress-top-pants-vintage-1970s-sewing-pattern
If you don’t feel like clicking, the girls dress 14 is 32-26.5-34 and the women’s is 36-28-38.
Comparing that to the JCrew website (where the bottom dress is from) the modern girls size 14 is 33-26-33 and modern women’s size 14 is 40.5-33-43.
So basically you are completely correct…that dress in the picture is almost exactly a modern girls size 14, which is not actually that different from a 70s girls size 14, which was pretty close to a 1970s womens size 14, which is really different from a modern women’s size 14.
Apparently the vanity sizing trend only starts when puberty hits.
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