Weekend book lists

/ bs king / 6 Comments

As the AVI pointed out in the comments on my last post, book lists are troublesome.  Are we ranking books that are important, books that are supposed to be important, books that we’re reading or books we want people to think we’re reading?   What makes a good book anyway?

That being said….here’s a list of 623 books, compiled from 13 different “100 best books” lists (actually, now I’m confused…it says 623, but if you scroll all the way down it’s 624).
I’ve read 127, in part because I was working on the Modern Library’s top 100 novels list for a while.  It shows that my focus was on top novels too….I’ve read 39 out of the top 50, and 100 of the books I’ve read were in the top 300.
So how is this list skewed?  Well for starters I know the Modern Library list was supposed to be English language novels from the last century.  From the looks of the main list, some of the other lists included translations and older books, along with nonfiction.  Still, the name of the website sort of takes care of any complaints….all they’re claiming is that this is “a list of books”.
Which, of course, it is.  

Friday Fun Links 12-13-12

/ bs king / 4 Comments

Still don’t have enough Christmas present ideas?  How about the book My Ideal Bookshelf which compiles different “notable” peoples favorite books?  Just as cool is the chart the editor’s boyfriend did to show how all the lists interacted.

The little lord is recovering nicely from his first cold.  I feel he has traversed this journey valiantly….this chart from rambling muse does a good job of showing where he’s been:
If you’re looking for a good podcast with interesting math facts, try Math Mutation by Erik Seligman….all sorts of fun little number facts.
This week, TED put out a letter to all TEDx organizers asking them to vet their talks a bit better.  The letters good, but even better is the subreddit that documented the talks that prompted the letter to begin with.

We’re #1! And I still hate infographics

/ bs king

Sometimes I think I should link to my blog on my facebook page.  Then I realize that would mean I couldn’t repost ignorant infographics with impunity.  Like this one:

As of this writing, this has been shared over 1000 times, and that’s just by one group.
Now seriously, does this even look right?  My guess up front is no more than 5 of these are correct, even before considering reporting issues.
First, I had to dig around for the source data.  I pretty quickly found Nationmaster.com…which looks like it might have been the original source for this.  As a test, I tried Total Crimes, and came up with exact list above (US, UK, Germany, France).  Now, this is total crime, not per capita, and at the bottom of the list there’s this disclaimer: Crime statistics are often better indicators of prevalence of law enforcement and willingness to report, than actual prevalence.  O RLY?
Seriously though, I’m not even going to get nitpicky on this one.  I just want to see how many of these lists are even accurately copied.  Inaccuracies will be in bold.  Ready?  Let’s go:
#1 Total Crimes:  Accurately transcribed
#2 Rape: Nope. Per capita rapes go: Lesotho, New Zealand, Belgium, Iceland and totals are: France, Germany, Russia, Sweden
#3 CO2 Emissions: Accurately transcribed
#4 Divorce Rate: Accurately transcribed
#5 Teen birth rate: US is at the top, but only 40 countries are on here…they all appear to be the OECD countries too.  Anyway, the next 2 are wrong…it’s Bulgaria and the Czech Republic (Slovakia is correct)
#6 Heart attack: Couldn’t find an actual “heart attack” category, but heart disease deaths go: Slovakia, Hungary, Ireland, Czech Republic
#7 McDonald’s: Accurately transcribed with TOTAL numbers, but per $ of GDP, we’re only #4
#8 Plastic Surgery: Weirdly, this is the only one not on the website.  I dug up a chart from the Economist though, and it put the top 4 as South Korea, Greece, Italy, and Brazil.
#9 Prisoners: Accurately transcribed
So that was slightly better than expected.  3 were patently wrong, and I would quibble with the teen birth rate as our leading the list requires that only developed countries be counted.  
Interestingly, out of the nearly 200 comments, only 4 people asked for the source data, and only 2 people offered up some sort of record keeping type objection.  
As I went a little further in to the Nationmaster data, I discovered that China passed the US for CO2 emissions in 2007, so that one was just old info on the website.  I also found that our divorce rate per capita is highest, but not when you compare it to the number of marriages we have.  
So the only ones left are total crimes (by convictions) which would definitely feed in to having a high number of prisoners (that we acknowledge….China I’m looking at you).  McDonald’s was started here…I’m pretty sure we have the most Starbucks as well. 
That’s 3 out of 9.
Good job internet.  

Wednesday Brain Teaser 12-12-12

/ bs king / 8 Comments

Jack and Jill were racing, but it was no contest.  Jack beat Jill by 10 yards on a 100 yard course.  Jill suggested that for the second race, Jack should start 10 yards behind the starting line.  Presuming they run the same speed, who wins this race, and how long before Amanda Marcotte writes a column about it?

Take your stinking paws off me you damn dirty ape!

/ bs king

I was reading an article the other day….something about people being foolish….and I ran across a rather fascinating comment.  It started as a regular comment of exasperation, but ended with an interesting stat “what do you expect from a country where 7% of people think the Planet of the Apes could come true”.

Much to my delight, the person linked to something I’d never seen before….the National Geographic Doomsday Preppers Survey. 
This is an absolutely great little survey about various catastrophes and the ways the world could end.  The question referenced above gave a list of movies and said “Which of the following movies, if any, do you think depict events that could happen in the next 25 years?”, and yes, 7% agreed with Planet of the Apes.  Of course, the phrase “depict events” is a little vague….technically you could say yes if you just thought Charlton Heston might yell at something in the next 25 years.  That seems pretty certain actually.
The whole thing is pretty interesting actually….apparently 27% of people think something’s pretty likely to happen on December 21st, cuz you know, Mayans and all.  I was also a little perplexed to find out that, were the world to be ending tomorrow, 20% of people would spend their last night on earth stocking up on food and water.  I’m pretty sure my plans would be a little more fun.
I felt some of the questions had other interpretation problems.  One question asked how many years before the world would experience a major catastrophe.  Is that anywhere?  Because that actually happens fairly frequently.
Also, to the question “who would you share your supplies with” only 28% of parents said they’d share with their children.  That looks lousy, but another category says “immediate family”….so I’m guessing some people got confused.  
Overall, a great little survey that reminded me to keep researching generators, and to do something fun this week before the world ends next Friday.  

Stats in pop culture…how fertile are you anyway?

/ bs king

I don’t watch much TV.  Though I occasionally watch a crime procedural or two (see kids, science is fun!), I can’t remember the last time I watched a sitcom (scratch that, I have watch the Big Bang Theory on more than one occasion).  Thus I was somewhat interested to see the feminist blogosphere calling out the Zooey Deschanel vehicle (oh she’s so zany…..is that rain????) “The New Girl” for using a deceptive statistic.

Apparently a recent episode focused entirely on the premise that “by the time a lady hits 30, she loses about 90 percent of her eggs.”

When the fact checkers weighed in, they revealed that while that stat is true, women start out with approximately 300,000 eggs…..so at 30 there are still about 30,000 hanging out there.

Of course eggs don’t necessarily equate to fertility, and fertility doesn’t necessarily mean a healthy pregnancy.  Despite what many comments section trolls claim, women’s prime childbearing years are not in their teens, but rather peak at 25 or so.

While taking a look at this, I actually found more evidence that the fertility decline starts circa 27, but the overall chances of ever achieving pregnancy don’t start to drop off until 33 or 34.  This was a good reminder that the “turning 30” thing has little to do with an actual physiological change, and more to do with people just liking round numbers.

Also related: I had often heard (and even quoted) that women who had already had kids were able to have kids later in life than those who had not (ie a woman who has a child at 30 will have an easier time having another one at 37 then one who is trying at 37 for the first time).  There’s a suggestion that this actually isn’t true….it’s just that by having that first child you’ve self selected as someone who doesn’t have a pre-existing fertility problem.  I couldn’t find the original study to verify this….but it seems like a plausible oversight.

Another note: fertility stats are really difficult to try to find, IVF clinics are the ones publishing most of them and they’re dodgy with citations…..still a better source for info than a TV show though.

One last note: congrats to regular reader Andy….you’re going to love being a Dad.  The world needs more banjo players….brainwash him/her early and you just might get one.

Are you ready for some football?

/ bs king / 1 Comment

There are very few things in life more boring than hearing someone talk about their fantasy football team….so feel free to tune out now.

Good grief has my first foray in to FF been a disaster….but an excellent example of how picking your data points can change the results.

For those of you not well versed in standard FF setups, each week your team plays another team in your league.  Your teams do not reflect real NFL teams, but rather new teams composed of existing players.  Your record is determined by how often you beat the team you’re playing that week.

In my league of 8 (run by the AVIs son, btw), I’m dead last.

However, I’m 3rd for points scored this year.  In fact, I’ve scored only 30 points less than the first place team….and 343 points more than the team directly ahead of me in the standings.   My problem of course is how many points my opponents score when they play me.  I have had more points scored against me than any other team by almost 100 points for the season.

Sigh.

This week is the first round of the playoffs, and I’m projected to lose yet again.  While I love the stats part of fantasy sports, it’s really much better to be lucky than good.

Weekend Moment of Zen 12-8-12

/ bs king

http://embed.ted.com/talks/ben_goldacre_what_doctors_don_t_know_about_the_drugs_they_prescribe.html Apparently I can’t get Ben Goldacre’s new book until February, so I only have this TED talk to hold me over until then.

Best quote “If I conducted one study, and withheld half the data points from that one study, you would rightfully accuse me of research fraud.  And yet for some reason, if somebody conducts ten studies, but only publish the 5 that give the result they want, we don’t consider that misconduct.”

200th post

/ bs king / 2 Comments

Blogger tells me this post will be my 200th, so it seemed like a good time to go a little meta and reflect on my own statistics since I went live on March 21st.

Most popular posts:

#1 My most popular post didn’t surprise me, it was the one where I correlated retraction rates in scientific journals with conservatives decreasing trust in science.  That one got linked to/reposted on quite a few blogs, so it didn’t surprise me too much.

#2 The second most popular is a little strange, I still haven’t figured out what key words keep leading people to my 4th of July post….most of that’s just a repost from the Census Bureau.

#3 My third most popular post is my feelings on the application of Title IX to STEM professions.  It’s pretty funny because that’s the only post I’ve ever done that my brother ever got actively upset at me over, and it ended up as required reading for a class at a community college in California on gender issues.  I considered emailing the professor to ask what the discussion around it was, but I wasn’t sure I wanted the answer to that question.

The rest:

#4 5 Rules for Reading Scientific Papers Online
#5 Soviet Propaganda, Infographic Style
#6 Arguments and Discussions, learning the rules
#7 Mission Statement
#8 Rule 6D
#9 Are Republicans Stupid?
#10 Rule #6

#9 makes me laugh because “are republicans stupid” is actually the most popular search that brings people to my blog (excluding searches for my blog in particular)…I don’t think that post gives them what they’re looking for.  Relatedly “gas prices the day bush took office” also brings me some traffic.

I’m happy to report 4% of my traffic comes from Linux users (stay strong my friends!)

Most popular countries are:
USA
Russia
Canada
Iceland
France
UK
Indonesia
Ukraine
Germany
Australia

I suspect most of the Russia traffic is spammers, and probably Ukraine as well.  Not sure about the rest.

The correlation between the number of posts I put up in a month and the amount of traffic I get is .68, but it drops to .53 if I exclude March as a partial month.

I’d be interested to hear any thoughts on this, and as always any directions for the future!  Thank you all for making this an entertaining 200 posts, and I look forward to the next 200!

Fashionable Neuroscience

/ bs king

The Assistant Village Idiot is doing a series on fashionable politics. 

I find the term fashion a little difficult to wrap my head around, because it’s hard to tell the difference between something that’s “fashionable” vs “fad” vs “popular” vs “interesting to a lot of people” vs “start of a permanent change in society”.  Of course I think everyone has trouble differentiating this in the moment….the real difference between these ideas can only really be seen in retrospect (you know, like the internet fad or Dick Rowe saying guitar groups were on their way out).
Anyway, after pondering this, I ran in to this article on fashions in neuroscience.
Essentially, researchers made a faux fMRI map that reflected how often studies were done on various locations in the brain. 
 Even more interestingly, they also did one that mapped paper impact factor based on various areas to see which areas would be most likely to get further citations.  They also did a word cloud.
Red areas got more citations, blue are negative.  The top wordle is words in the successful papers, the bottom in the less successful ones (as measured by subsequent citations).
I’m still not sure if they reflects fashion or  researchers following  the same trains of thought, or just everyone sticking with the areas that light up the best.  We’ll probably see in about 50 years.
In the mean time, stay classy San Diego.