Does Popularity Influence Reliability? A Discussion

Welcome to the “Papers in Meta Science” where we walk through published papers that use science to scrutinize science. At the moment we’re taking a look at the paper “Large-Scale Assessment of the Effect of Popularity on the Reliability of Research” by Pfeiffer and Hoffman. Read the introduction here, and the methods and results section here.

Well hi! Welcome back to our review of how scientific popularity influences the reliability of results. When last we left off we had established that the popularity of protein interactions did not effect the reliability of results for pairings initially, but did effect the reliability of results involving those popular proteins. In other words, you can identify the popular kids pretty well, but figuring out who they are actually connected to gets a little tricky. People like being friends with the popular kids.

Interestingly, the overall results showed a much stronger effect for the “multiple testing hypothesis” than the “inflated error effect” hypothesis, meaning that many of the false positive results seem to be coming from the extra teams running many different experiments and getting a predictable number of false positives. More overall tests = more overall false positives. This effect was 10 times stronger than the inflated error effect, though that was still present.

So what do should we do here? Well, a few things:

  1. Awareness Researchers should be extra aware that running lots of tests on a new and interesting protein could result in less accurate results.
  2. Encourage novel testing Continue to encourage people to branch out in their research as opposed to giving more funding to those researching more popular topics
  3. Informal research wikis This was an interesting idea I hadn’t seen before: use the Wikipedia model to let researchers note things they had tested that didn’t pan out. As I mentioned when I reviewed the Ioannidis paper, there’s not an easy way of knowing how many teams are working on a particular question at any given time. Setting up a less formal place for people to check what other teams were doing may give researchers better insight in to how many false positives they can expect to see.

Overall, it’s also important to remember that this is just one study and that findings in other fields may be different. It would be interesting to see a similar thing repeated in a social science type filed or something similar to see if public interest makes results better or worse.

Got another paper you’re interested in? Let me know!

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