State Level Excess Mortality – 3/23/22

Well hello again! Paid work delayed this post for a little bit, so I’m interested to see after 7 weeks where we’re going to land. Last time I posted we had just gone over 1 million excess deaths since 2/1/20, and as of this week we are just under 1.1 million. Hopefully things are settling down now, and I’ll be interested to see where the 2021 numbers are as well. I’m also going to throw in an extra bit about official COVID deaths vs excess mortality, as my state made some major adjustments to the official numbers this month.

Ready? Let’s go!

Excess Mortality Above Average

First up, the map. When I posted 7 weeks ago, the range at the bottom was 881-5245 deaths/million residents. Now it’s 1020-5729 deaths/million. The top states continue to rise faster than the bottom ones. It’s amazing to think that in the top states one out of every 200 people who was alive at the beginning of the pandemic is now an excess death. As always, that’s in addition to those expected to die anyway.

I was surprised to see West Virginia suddenly sticking out more than previously, and was curious to see how that showed up in the numbers. The difference was pretty clear:

StateExcess Deaths
Above Average
2/1/20-3/23/22
Change from
2/2/22
Change in
Rank
Mississippi5729+484No change
Arizona4948+328No change
Alabama4768+463No change
West Virginia4710+1081+6
New Mexico4642+455-1
Tennessee4400+454+1
Arkansas4363+390-2
Louisiana4269+299-2
South Carolina4202+833+10
Montana4172+293-2

West Virginia and South Carolina had a lousy winter it appears. They were the two states that gained the most excess deaths in the last 7 weeks. Here are the rest of the top 10:

State3/23/22
Excess
2/2/22
Excess
DifferenceMar RankFeb Rank
West Virginia471036291081410
South Carolina42023369833919
North Carolina255620275294245
Oklahoma407735755021211
Kentucky397134804911315
Mississippi5729524548411
Alabama4768430546333
New Mexico4642418745554
Tennessee4400394645467
Rhode Island303325934403134

Looking back at my old post, I had noted that West Virginia reporting had been quite sparse since Thanksgiving 2021, so it’s likely some of that jump is them catching up with deaths they should have filed much earlier. Let’s see if that shows up in the 2021 totals.

Percent Excess Mortality – 2020 and 2021

Looks like some of them did! North Carolina, South Carolina and West Virginia added 10+ percentage points to their 2021 excess mortality total since 7 weeks ago. Seems like a data dump. Again, the asterisked states added 2% or more to their total, and the ones highlighted in green are in the top 10.

State2020 deaths – actual2020 deaths – expectedPercent Increase 20202021 deaths – reported2021 deaths – expectedPercent Increase 2021
Alabama625505473114%673875502222%
Alaska4971443412%5996457431%*
Arizona759556427118%824376378929%
Arkansas374323345212%399793347219%
California31543028270412%33604227499222%
Colorado471614140414%487804127918%
Connecticut377303242216%34404328845%*
Delaware10862100678%112631011711%
District of Columbia737868817%7116636912%
Florida24076521815910%26469221928221%
Georgia1024648860116%1120588942925%
Hawaii11990119181%12825123524%
Idaho16340151318%182981519620%
Illinois12744010867017%12057010811812%
Indiana782936922713%790566894315%
Iowa354183100414%33763315427%
Kansas307732689514%309602747213%
Kentucky55145506789%600465006620%
Louisiana563204729619%570854801419%
Maine15504149903%170441543010%
Maryland590485274712%57353531228%
Massachusetts683906097912%63725622382%
Michigan1145109895416%11536410001815%
Minnesota517324610412%51101470169%
Mississippi388253224820%403033246024%
Missouri755146683313%762256797212%
Montana119031053313%127711045822%
Nebraska195471721514%19034178766%
Nevada310062819210%339582746224%
New Hampshire13435131152%13766133393%
New Jersey946217682423%83181782126%
New Mexico228421925419%242381961124%*
New York11827410163516%11580210308012%
New York City816605488949%631135556814%
North Carolina108916998539%11202610038212%*
North Dakota8793721422%74647566-1%
Ohio1422111300679%14699712944414%
Oklahoma458144077712%490834107619%
Oregon39947374127%447583738720%
Pennsylvania15462214039310%15565113854612%
Puerto Rico32056304825%32959305268%
Rhode Island120541043915%11566109266%
South Carolina596765151716%642155271122%*
South Dakota10052839820%9348848910%
Tennessee874187802112%951127901220%
Texas25091721220518%27140221496126%
United States3353789294306914%3454320295500417%
Utah220271997410%234142002317%
Vermont611658614%6617574115%
Virginia786807148810%844127276016%
Washington62558593235%683596003214%
West Virginia253232302810%277132362917%*
Wisconsin619405467213%60498555739%
Wyoming5497438625%5950492121%

Now one more analysis before we go!

Excess Mortality vs Official COVID deaths and Vaccination Rates

So on this blog, we’ve been talking strictly about excess mortality. I started using this metric because I found the discrepancies between state death definitions a bit annoying. Two weeks ago, I heard that Massachusetts was revising their official COVID death count downward by about 3,700. Massachusetts had long been one of the states that appeared to be overcounting COVID deaths, so I was not concerned about this change. While MA has been hanging out in the bottom 5 for excess mortality for months, in terms of official COVID deaths they had been top 10-15 for 2 years now. With this change our official count has dropped to #32, much more in line with the likely true count. I decided to do a quick correlation between states to see how excess mortality lined up with official COVID death counts. The correlation is a stunning r = .83 between reported COVID deaths and excess mortality. Massachusetts highlighted in yellow, suggesting even with the reduction we are still slightly over counting:

That outlier of undercounting is Vermont btw, not sure what they’re up to.

So then, since this question comes up a lot, I decided to do a correlation between vaccine uptake by state and excess mortality since 2/1/20. Even with no vaccines in 2020, we still see a moderately strong negative correlation r = -.65. In general something is called strong at r = .7 or .75:

Vaccine data source here.

Stay safe out there!

The Spanish Project – March 2022

I haven’t posted about personal projects in a while, but I’ve updated a few people in my life about this recently and thought others might be interested as well. After finishing up my stats degree a few years ago, I realized I was almost certainly never going back to school again. That was fine for a while, and while I was dealing with some health issues some rest seemed to be exactly what I needed. However, a few months ago I started itching for a new intellectual project, and realized that I would love to become trilingual. Worldwide, speaking more than one language is the norm. I think it’s actually a little unclear what the percentages are, but the estimates seem to cluster around 40-50% of people worldwide speak 2 languages, and 15-20% more speak 3+. This leaves around 40% only speaking one language. In the US however, only about 20% of people can speak 2 (or more) languages, and this number represents a big increase from prior years. Now some of this could be the lack of regional language variation in the US (you can drive for 3000 miles without hitting a new language), but still, I thought it would be fun to be able to converse in another language. So I decided to do some research.

Because this was just a self driven goal, I decided a few things:

  1. I was going to start with Spanish (4 years of high school learning, but I was never comfortable with it)
  2. I’d give myself 5 years to get conversationally fluent in each language
  3. I’d give myself 3 months to figure out what method I would use
  4. I was really okay if I just became bilingual, so making as much progress as I could in one language was cool too.

The internet has a plethora of information about language learning, so I had a lot to read. Some of the most helpful stuff I came across said I needed to define my goals/reasons to help figure out my approach, so that led me to a couple other rules:

  1. I wanted to be able to comfortably watch Spanish language movies without subtitles
  2. Speaking immediately wasn’t important to me, as I am not planning travel any time soon
  3. I wanted something I could do on my own schedule, and that would be interesting enough for me to see the project through.

This led me to Comprehensible Input, or the input hypothesis. This is a language learning theory (or group of theories) that essentially states that at first, listening is more important than speaking. It’s based on the work of Stephen Krashen, who noted that listening before speaking is how we all acquire our first language, and maybe we should try to mimic that when we acquire a second language. There’s a lot of ins and outs to the theory from a linguistic perspective, many of which are on his website. While this method is a little hard to use in a traditional classroom, it’s exploded in popularity among independent learners. In the age of the internet, getting your hands on media in your target language is easier than ever and more fun than sitting in a classroom. I decided to go for it using a website called Dreaming Spanish, which makes videos specifically designed for adult learners looking to use this method. They specialize in videos that are easier than “native” media, to help you get up to that level. Pablo (the owner) explains the method here, along with the estimated number of hours of viewing it will take you to get to each level. Being numbers driven, I really liked the idea of being able to track hours to monitor my progress, so I decided to go for it. Most of the beginner videos are free, and once you hit the intermediate level it was $7/month (now up to $8/month) to get access to most of the intermediate videos. Less than $100/year to learn a language was a heck of a lot cheaper than grad school, so I went with the subscription.

Pablo estimates that you will need 1000 hours of input to be conversational in Spanish (based on being an English speaker), and 1500 hours to be essentially fluent. I decided to set a goal of 20 hours/month, which would put me at conversational in a little over 4 years and fully fluent in a little over 6 years. I decided to start September 1st, 2021, though I had already watched 40 hours during my investigation period. Here’s how I’m doing so far:

So far I have met or exceeded my goal every month. I started out 42 hours ahead of schedule, and now I am 64 hours ahead of where I thought I’d be. My new goal is to get to Level 4 by the one year mark, which I will meet if I continue to hit 20 hours/month.

More important than just the numbers however, I would say my progress is tracking with Pablo’s estimates. At level 3 (my current level) he estimates I should be able to understand topics adapted for learners, which I can. By level 4 (300 hours) I should be able to understand patient native speakers. At Level 5 (600 hours) I should be able to understand full speed native speakers, and a lot of media will be easier to use for learning.

Also important, the amount of time I spend on this has actually gone up in the last 6 months, which proves this method is engaging, at least for me! Here are my hours/month since I started, not counting the hours I put in before I decided to go with this method:

Interestingly, the jump in hours approximately correlates with hitting the first intermediate level, where I could watch faster videos with fewer drawings/hints for words. I did notice I was more excited to watch the more I felt myself improving in comprehension, which explains why February (one of the shortest months) was my highest number of hours to date.

I won’t pretend I understand all the linguistic debates over whether or not this method is truly superior, but I do have to think that having students get excited over their learning method is a key marker of success. I will never learn Spanish the way I want if I give up after a year, so any method that gets more exciting over time is a plus.

I’ll be updating periodically on my progress.

Adios!