I’ve been ruminating a lot on truth and errors this week, so it was perhaps well timed that someone sent me this article on the “backfire effect” a few days ago. The backfire effect is a name given to a psychological phenomena in which attempting to correct someone’s facts actually increases their belief in their original error. Rather than admit they are wrong when presented with evidence they narrative goes, people double down. Given the current state of politics in the US, this has become a popular thing to talk about. It’s popped up in my Facebook feed and is commonly cited as the cause of the “post-fact” era.

So what’s up with this? Is it true that no one cares about facts any more? Should I give up on this whole facts thing and find something better to do with my time?

Well, as with most things, it turns out it’s a bit more complicated than that. Here’s a few things you should know about the state of this research:

1. The most highly cited paper focused heavily on the Iraq War The first paper that made headlines was from Nyhan and Reifler back in 2010, and was performed on college students at a Midwest Catholic University. They presented some students with stories including political misperceptions, and some with stories that also had corrections. They found that the students that got corrections were more likely to believe the original misperception. The biggest issue this showed up with was whether or not WMDs were found in Iraq. They also tested facts/corrections around the tax code and stem cell research bans, but it was the WMD findings that grabbed all the headlines. What’s notable is that the research was performed in 2005 and 2006, when the Iraq War was heavily in the news.
2. The sample size was fairly small and composed entirely of college students One of the primary weaknesses of the first papers (as stated by the authors themselves) is that 130 college students are not really a representative sample. The sample was half liberal and 25% conservative. It’s worth noting that they believe that was a representative sample for their campus, meaning all of the conservatives were in an environment where they were the minority. Given that one of the conclusions of the paper was that conservatives seemed to be more prone to this effect than liberals, it’s an important point.
3. A new paper with a broader sample suggest the “backfire effect” is actually fairly rare. Last year, two researchers (Porter and Wood) polled 8,100 people from all walks of life on 36 political topics and found…..WMDs in Iraq were actually the only issue that provoked a backfire effect. A great Q&A with them can be found here. This is fascinating if it holds up because it means the original research was mostly confirmed, but any attempt at generalization was pretty wrong.
4. When correcting facts, phrasing mattered One of the more interesting parts of the Porter/Wood study was when the researchers described how they approached their corrections. In their own words “Accordingly, we do not ask respondents to change their policy preferences in response to facts–they are instead asked to adopt an authoritative source’s description of the facts, in the face of contradictory political rhetoric“. They reject heartily “corrections” that are aimed at making people change their mind on a moral stance (like say abortion) and focus only on facts. Even with the WMD question they found that the more straightforward and simple the correction statement, the more people of all political persuasions accepted it.
5. The 4 study authors are now working together In an exceptionally cool twist, the authors who came to slightly different conclusions are now working together. The Science of Us gives the whole story here, but essentially Nyhan and Reifler praised Porter and Wood’s work, then said they should all work together to figure out what’s going on. They apparently gathered a lot of data during the height of election season and hopefully we will see those results in the near future.

I think this is an important set of points, both because it’s heartwarming (and intellectually awesome!) to see senior researchers accepting that some of their conclusion may be wrong and actually working with others to improve their own work. Next, I think it’s important because I’ve heard a lot of people in my personal life commenting that “facts don’t work” so they basically avoid arguing with those who don’t agree with them. If it’s true that facts DO work as long as you’re not focused on getting someone to change their mind on the root issue, then it’s REALLY important that we know that. It’s purely anecdotal, but I can note that this has been my experience with political debates. Even the most hardcore conservatives and liberals I know will make concessions if you clarify you know they won’t change their mind on their moral stance.