Well hello again! It’s time for another update to state level excess mortality. The last data update contained a dubious distinction, as for the first time our excess mortality since 2/1/20 surpassed 1 million people: 1,006,393. I recall at the very early in the pandemic that someone sent around an email pointing out that in the Hong Kong Flu epidemic of 1968 killed 100,000 people and nothing was canceled. At the time I responded that the 100k death count came over the course of 3 separate calendar years, and that we would have to check back in after 2 years to be equivalent. I feel pretty good about that email now, though I’m not happy I was correct.

Anyway, with the Omicron surge we’ve had some updates to mortality, so let’s get on with it!

Excess Mortality Above Average

Alright, first, here’s the map. When I last posted this 5 weeks ago, the range was about 872-4962 excess deaths/million residents. Now it’s 881-5245. Last time there were some adjustments in the way the data was counted, but this time data calculation methods have stayed steady:

Not a lot of changes in the hotspots, as we can see in the table with numbers:

State	Excess Deaths Above Average/Million, 2/1/20-2/2/22	Change from 12/29/21	Change in Rank
Mississippi	5245	+284	No change
Arizona	4620	+382	No change
Alabama	4305	+105	No change
New Mexico	4187	+459	+3
Arkansas	3973	+210	No change
Louisiana	3970	+64	-2
Tennessee	3946	+214	-1
Montana	3879	+263	No change
Wyoming	3821	+211	No change
West Virginia	3629	+216	No change

Interesting that many of the already bad states did not appear to get off the hook in the current wave. Mississippi for example added the 16th most deaths in the last few weeks.

I continue to be pleased that Massachusetts is 47th (out of 52) and New Hampshire is 51st.

The states that added the most deaths in the last 5 weeks are:

State	2/2/22 Total	12/29/21 Total	Difference	Feb rank	Dec Rank
New York	3554	2902	652	13	22
Ohio	3322	2833	490	20	23
New Mexico	4187	3728	459	4	7
Indiana	3261	2825	436	22	24
Michigan	3567	3183	384	12	17
Arizona	4620	4238	382	2	2
Rhode Island	2593	2223	371	34	40
Maine	2216	1856	360	42	45
Kansas	2928	2587	341	27	30
Illinois	2842	2500	341	30	31

New York moving up again, interesting.

Percent Excess Mortality, all states 2020 and 2021

I had mentioned last post that I was going to update the totals for all states excess mortality on a regular basis now as well. Some states are still adding to their totals from 2021, so these will continue to change. West Virginia for example appears to have only done 1 week of reporting since Thanksgiving. North Dakota appears they’re backlogged after Halloween. Not sure what’s going on with that, but I highlighted the states with the top 10 totals in green (2021 had a 4 way tie for 10th, so there are 13 states there), and asterisked any state that changed by more than 2 percentage points since the last update. All revisions were upward:

State	2020 deaths – actual	2020 deaths – expected	Percent Increase 2020	2021 deaths – reported	2021 deaths – expected	Percent Increase 2021
Alabama	62550	54605	15%	67029	54840	22%
Alaska	4971	4435	12%	5824	4612	26%*
Arizona	75955	64062	19%	82459	63817	29%
Arkansas	37432	33234	13%	39898	33352	20%
California	315430	281179	12%	335200	274951	22%
Colorado	47161	41227	14%	48737	41335	18%
Connecticut	37730	32272	17%	33894	32801	3%
Delaware	10862	10067	8%	11214	9965	13%
District of Columbia	7378	6776	9%	7033	6291	12%*
Florida	240765	217299	11%	264568	218413	21%
Georgia	102464	89018	15%	110850	89254	24%
Hawaii	11990	11889	1%	12798	12310	4%
Idaho	16340	15083	8%	18284	15120	21%
Illinois	127440	108471	17%	120593	107695	12%
Indiana	78293	68928	14%	78738	68705	15%
Iowa	35418	30939	14%	33659	31492	7%
Kansas	30773	26934	14%	30943	27449	13%
Kentucky	55145	50422	9%	59354	50002	19%*
Louisiana	56320	47162	19%	56146	47782	18%*
Maine	15504	14972	4%	17053	15404	11%
Maryland	59048	52635	12%	57115	52820	8%
Massachusetts	68390	61009	12%	63705	61776	3%
Michigan	114510	99106	16%	115192	99859	15%
Minnesota	51732	46097	12%	50850	46947	8%
Mississippi	38825	32136	21%	40162	32506	24%
Missouri	75514	66853	13%	75646	67492	12%
Montana	11903	10442	14%	12747	10528	21%
Nebraska	19547	17278	13%	18970	17764	7%
Nevada	31006	27946	11%	33873	27510	23%
New Hampshire	13435	13092	3%	13766	13201	4%
New Jersey	94621	76811	23%	83091	77594	7%
New Mexico	22842	19253	19%	23858	19616	22%
New York	118274	101674	16%	115786	102749	13%
New York City	81660	54966	49%	63153	55357	14%
North Carolina	108916	99420	10%	100412	100312	0%*
North Dakota	8793	7185	22%	7469	7609	-2%
Ohio	142211	129576	10%	146578	128516	14%
Oklahoma	45814	40726	12%	48736	40894	19%
Oregon	39947	37238	7%	44561	37596	19%
Pennsylvania	154622	139723	11%	155116	137818	13%
Puerto Rico	32056	30118	6%	32780	30330	8%
Rhode Island	12054	10468	15%	10889	10894	0%*
South Carolina	59676	51850	15%	59431	52509	13%
South Dakota	10052	8349	20%	9319	8540	9%*
Tennessee	87418	77951	12%	94861	78857	20%
Texas	250917	211898	18%	270448	214572	26%
United States	3353789	2939418	14%	3427210	2948486	16%
Utah	22027	19936	10%	23327	20048	16%*
Vermont	6116	5848	5%	6617	5706	16%
Virginia	78680	71278	10%	84353	72596	16%
Washington	62558	59225	6%	68219	60045	14%
West Virginia	25323	23030	10%	24911	23567	6%*
Wisconsin	61940	54715	13%	60442	55507	9%
Wyoming	5497	4484	23%	5948	4909	21%

An interesting note that in 2020 it took 18% excess mortality to be top 10, and in 2021 it took 21% or more. The US total went from 14% excess to 16% in those years. As more data comes in it will be interesting to see if that moves even further up.

Alright, that’s it for now! Hopefully things will only calm down from here.