I got a request from Henry to post all 50 states excess mortality numbers, both raw and percent above baseline for 2020 and 2021. This seemed a reasonable request, so I pulled it together. To note, data from the end of 2021 is still being compiled by some states. There were 7 that had notes that their data from the end of the year is likely still quite incomplete: Alaska, DC, North Carolina, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Utah and West Virginia. At least 2 of those states are currently showing a death drop, so that’s likely where that’s coming from.
The percent increase calculation changed slightly from my last post, so some of the numbers are slightly different – between 0-2% for 48 out of 54 districts, 3 or 4% for the other 6. Additionally, I used predicted deaths to try to compare in the last post, but here the 2021 numbers are actual reported. This means these numbers will only go up in subsequent weeks. I will probably redo this data in another month or two to see how the slow reporting states (and everyone else) changed.
With that out of the way, here’s the table. I bolded the data for the whole US, and highlighted any percent increase that was top 10 for the year. For 2021 it ended up being top 11 actually, as there was a 3 way tie for 9th. Data set was downloaded here this morning, and leave me any questions in the comments!
State | 2020 deaths – actual | 2020 deaths – expected | Percent Increase 2020 | 2021 deaths – reported | 2021 deaths – expected | Percent Increase 2021 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alabama | 62550 | 54559 | 15% | 66666 | 54822 | 22% |
Alaska | 4971 | 4434 | 12% | 5612 | 4617 | 22% |
Arizona | 75955 | 63988 | 19% | 82174 | 63817 | 29% |
Arkansas | 37432 | 33181 | 13% | 39834 | 33355 | 19% |
California | 315430 | 280759 | 12% | 333356 | 274995 | 21% |
Colorado | 47161 | 41189 | 14% | 48549 | 41351 | 17% |
Connecticut | 37730 | 32248 | 17% | 33513 | 32784 | 2% |
Delaware | 10862 | 10064 | 8% | 11160 | 9943 | 12% |
District of Columbia | 7378 | 6752 | 9% | 6651 | 6159 | 8% |
Florida | 240765 | 218287 | 10% | 264137 | 218365 | 21% |
Georgia | 102464 | 88930 | 15% | 109744 | 89244 | 23% |
Hawaii | 11990 | 11882 | 1% | 12737 | 12309 | 3% |
Idaho | 16340 | 15067 | 8% | 18237 | 15109 | 21% |
Illinois | 127440 | 108394 | 18% | 120345 | 107663 | 12% |
Indiana | 78293 | 68819 | 14% | 77852 | 68694 | 13% |
Iowa | 35418 | 30922 | 15% | 33445 | 31499 | 6% |
Kansas | 30773 | 26924 | 14% | 30886 | 27447 | 13% |
Kentucky | 55145 | 50351 | 10% | 58176 | 50013 | 16% |
Louisiana | 56320 | 47112 | 20% | 55069 | 47769 | 15% |
Maine | 15504 | 14965 | 4% | 17027 | 15405 | 11% |
Maryland | 59048 | 52591 | 12% | 56328 | 52783 | 7% |
Massachusetts | 68390 | 60993 | 12% | 63548 | 61704 | 3% |
Michigan | 114510 | 99063 | 16% | 114611 | 99865 | 15% |
Minnesota | 51732 | 46077 | 12% | 50556 | 46945 | 8% |
Mississippi | 38825 | 32108 | 21% | 40049 | 32509 | 23% |
Missouri | 75514 | 66800 | 13% | 75140 | 67456 | 11% |
Montana | 11903 | 10435 | 14% | 12679 | 10537 | 20% |
Nebraska | 19547 | 17279 | 13% | 18801 | 17755 | 6% |
Nevada | 31006 | 27887 | 11% | 33712 | 27518 | 23% |
New Hampshire | 13435 | 13092 | 3% | 13756 | 13179 | 4% |
New Jersey | 94621 | 76771 | 23% | 82949 | 77517 | 7% |
New Mexico | 22842 | 19254 | 19% | 23559 | 19609 | 20% |
New York | 118274 | 101630 | 16% | 115640 | 102710 | 13% |
New York City | 81660 | 54955 | 49% | 63123 | 55332 | 14% |
North Carolina | 108916 | 99303 | 10% | 96231 | 100320 | -4% |
North Dakota | 8793 | 7179 | 22% | 7469 | 7623 | -2% |
Ohio | 142211 | 129426 | 10% | 145189 | 128409 | 13% |
Oklahoma | 45814 | 40690 | 13% | 48310 | 40894 | 18% |
Oregon | 39947 | 37205 | 7% | 44219 | 37623 | 18% |
Pennsylvania | 154622 | 139535 | 11% | 154350 | 137745 | 12% |
Puerto Rico | 32056 | 30061 | 7% | 32588 | 30306 | 8% |
Rhode Island | 12054 | 10474 | 15% | 10624 | 10888 | -2% |
South Carolina | 59676 | 51805 | 15% | 58612 | 52484 | 12% |
South Dakota | 10052 | 8348 | 20% | 9116 | 8544 | 7% |
Tennessee | 87418 | 77861 | 12% | 94478 | 78875 | 20% |
Texas | 250917 | 211714 | 19% | 268940 | 214573 | 25% |
United States | 3353789 | 2936878 | 14% | 3403931 | 2948077 | 15% |
Utah | 22027 | 19924 | 11% | 22786 | 20050 | 14% |
Vermont | 6116 | 5841 | 5% | 6609 | 5701 | 16% |
Virginia | 78680 | 71211 | 10% | 83972 | 72610 | 16% |
Washington | 62558 | 59194 | 6% | 67855 | 60056 | 13% |
West Virginia | 25323 | 23026 | 10% | 24240 | 23566 | 3% |
Wisconsin | 61940 | 54685 | 13% | 60312 | 55499 | 9% |
Wyoming | 5497 | 4490 | 22% | 5923 | 4902 | 21% |
Thanks
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https://www.vox.com/22894978/covid-19-vaccine-lives-saved-deaths-avoided-omicron-chart
Thought you would find this article interesting.
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